Analysis of Inward Remittance Trend:
According to the economical statistics published by Bangladesh Bank, it seems remittance inflow to Bangladesh has been gradually increased in last 20 years. Between 90s and onward till starting of 21^{st} century remittance inflow was reported at a steady rate. After 2001 remittance inflow tour country was increasing and up to 20082009 a record amount of 10 million USD remittance inflows was recorded.
Table 1:Trend of Remittance inflow in Bangladesh (Year Wise)  
Year  Remittances (in Taka)  Growth  Remittances (in USD)  Growth 
19901991  27256.2  –  763.91  – 
19911992  32414.5  0.18925  849.66  0.11225 
19921993  36970.4  0.14055  944.57  0.1117 
19931994  43549  0.17794  1088.72  0.15261 
19941995  48144.7  0.10553  1197.63  0.10003 
19951996  49704  0.03239  1217.06  0.01622 
19961997  63000.4  0.26751  1475.42  0.21228 
19971998  69346  0.10072  1525.43  0.0339 
19981999  81977.8  0.18216  1705.74  0.1182 
19992000  98070.3  0.1963  1949.32  0.1428 
20002001  101700.1  0.03701  1882.1  0.0345 
20012002  143770.3  0.41367  2501.13  0.3289 
20022003  177288.2  0.23314  3061.97  0.22423 
20032004  198698  0.12076  3371.97  0.10124 
20042005  236469.7  0.1901  3848.29  0.14126 
20052006  322756.8  0.3649  4802.41  0.24793 
20062007  412985.29  0.27956  5998.47  0.24905 
20072008  542951.4  0.3147  7914.78  0.31947 
20082009  666758.5  0.22803  9689.26  0.2242 
20092010  760109.59  0.14007  10987.40  0.1339 
Avg. Growth Rate  19.5%  15.45% 
Remittance as percent of GDP & Export
Table 2: Remittance as percent of GDP & Export
Year  As percent of GDP  As percent of Export 
20022003  5.90  46.76 
20032004  5.98  44.35 
20042005  6.37  44.47 
20052006  7.75  45.62 
20062007  8.83  49.09 
20072008  10.02  56.09 
20082009  10.96  62.25 
Source: BBS, EPB, Bangladesh Bank.
The amount of remittances in terms of GDP and export earnings has also increased over the years. In 200203, remittances as percent of GDP and export stood at 5.90 percent and 46.76 percent respectively. In 200809, remittances as percent of GDP and export were 10.96 percent and 62.25 percent respectively.
Regression Analysis:
Regression Equation:
Y= 90100.18+1.283814X
X = independent variable = Remittance inflow by CBL
Y = dependent variable = Remittance inflow in Bangladesh
Here, the volume of remittance inflow of CBL increases for Tk. 1 million, remittance inflow in Bangladesh increases for Tk. 1.283814 million. Multiple R= 0.056 indicates low degree of positive relationship between remittance inflow by CBL and remittance inflow in Bangladesh. The explanatory power of the independent variable can be assessed by the coefficient of determination (R^{2}), R^{2} = 0.0032 indicates that 0.32% of the variation in the remittance inflow in Bangladesh can be explained by the variation in Remittance inflow by CBL. Numbers of observations in the sample are 5 (Year 20052009). P value of 0.55 means 45% certain of the estimate in order to conclude a significant relationship between the Y and X variable.
(See: Appendix 1)
Regression Equation:
Y= 2634.97+11.71237X
X = independent variable = Remittance inflow by CBL
Y = dependent variable = Profit before tax of CBL
Here, the volume of remittance inflow by CBL increases for Tk. 1 million, Profit before tax increases for Tk. 11.71237 million. Multiple R= 0.61 indicates positive relationship between remittance inflow by CBL and Profit before tax by CBL. The explanatory power of the independent variable can be assessed by the coefficient of determination (R^{2}), R^{2} = 0.369 indicates that 36.9% of the variation in the remittance inflow by CBL can be explained by the variation in Profit before tax by CBL. Numbers of observations in the sample are 5 (Year 20052009). P value of 0.79 means 21% certain of the estimate in order to conclude a significant relationship between the Y and X variable.
(See: Appendix 2)
tTest: Paired Two Sample for Means
Whether the mean return from remittance inflow by CBL is differing from mean return of remittance inflow in Bangladesh.
Ho: µ1 = µ2 = There is no significance difference between the mean return from remittance inflow by CBL and from mean return of remittance inflow in Bangladesh.
H1: µ1 = µ2 = There is significance difference between the mean return from remittance inflow by CBL and from mean return of remittance inflow in Bangladesh.
Here assumed level of significance is 5% and the appropriate test is tTest.
Table 3: tTest: Paired Two Sample for Means (1)  
 Variable 1  Variable 2 
Mean  9064.75  43637.64 
Variance  30179370  2.95E+08 
Observations  5  5 
Pearson Correlation  0.866655  
Hypothesized Mean Difference  0  
df  4  
t Stat  6.08594  
P(T<=t) onetail  0.001843  
t Critical onetail  2.131847  
P(T<=t) twotail  0.003685  
t Critical twotail  2.776445 
Here, the calculated value of tTest is t Stat = 6.08594 for 4 degrees of freedom at 5% level of significance, table value of tTest is (t Critical twotail) = 2.776445. The calculated value has in the rejection zone.
So, reject null hypothesis. There is significance difference between the mean return from remittance inflow by CBL and from mean return of remittance inflow in Bangladesh.
Whether the mean return from remittance inflow by CBL has relationship with the mean return of Profit before tax of CBL.
Ho: µ1 = µ2 = There is no significance relationship between the mean return from remittance inflow by CBL and the mean return of Profit before tax of CBL.
H1: µ1 = µ2 = There is significance relationship between the mean return from remittance inflow by CBL and the mean return of Profit before tax of CBL.
Here assumed level of significance is 5% and the appropriate test is tTest.
Table 4: tTest: Paired Two Sample for Means (2)  
 Variable 1  Variable 2 
Mean  9064.75  998.92 
Variance  30179370  81251.85 
Observations  5  5 
Pearson Correlation  0.607724  
Hypothesized Mean Difference  0  
df  4  
t Stat  3.386893  
P(T<=t) onetail  0.013805  
t Critical onetail  2.131847  
P(T<=t) twotail  0.027609  
t Critical twotail  2.776445 
Here, the calculated value of tTest is t Stat = 3.386893 for 4 degrees of freedom at 5% level of significance, table value of tTest is (t Critical twotail) = 2.776445. The calculated value has in the rejection zone.
So, reject null hypothesis. There is significance relationship between the mean return from remittance inflow by CBL and the mean return of Profit before tax of CBL.
Country wise Wage Earners Remittance Inflows:
Table 5: Country wise Wage Earners Remittance Inflows (Yearly)  
USD in millions  

Source: Bangladesh Bank website
After one eleven incident there was a chance of facing a decline in the remittance inflow but it was not happened. Because if we consider the above table we will see inflow from Middle East countries are twice larger than of summation of remittance inflow from Asian and European countries and this trend was carried forward from 90s to till this year. But due to the after affect of global economic fall down Bangladesh is facing a major decline in the remittance inflow as countries like Malaysia in Asia and U.A.E in Middle East are facing such impact and now sending so many wage earners to Bangladesh. More over due to mall practices in sending wage earners in those countries are also consider as a reason for low rate of employment in foreign countries. And this results in low inflow of remittance. In last year more than 20% fallout was recorded.
Comparative Analysis:
Table 6: Industry Comparison (last 5 months)  
Bank  MTBL  Dhaka Bank  Bank Asia  SEBL  CBL  Industry 
July  6.22  6.67  10.39  3.84  9.94  7.41 
August  6.32  9.14  17.08  4.73  12.15  9.89 
September  7.61  9.86  16.62  4.62  11.16  9.98 
October  7.78  7.89  17.36  4.94  12.29  10.05 
November  7.79  8.34  16.57  5.05  11.54  9.86 
Avg.  7.15  8.38  15.60  4.64  11.42  9.44 
Source: The City Bank Limited
Illustration 11: Industry Comparison
Now form my analysis I found that The City Bank Ltd. positioned itself on above the industry average line which is a great achievement in this year. Unlike other bank The City Bank is showing a smooth growth rate of remittance inflow and only in few years of operation it positioned itself as a Bank of Performance among the expatriates Bangladeshis who feel safe and sound while sending remittance to their love ones in Bangladesh. Now the reason behind this success can be point out in some key points like
Strong Management
Quality Service
Wide area of Coverage
Customer Orientation
Proper Feedback Facility
Technological Advancement
Futuristic decision making
Analysis of CBL’s Foreign Exchange Performance
Table 7: Trend of NBL Foreign Exchange performance ( Taka In Million)  
Year  Export  Growth  Import  Growth  Remittance  Growth 
2005  18218.97  –  21363.21  –  4158.70  – 
2006  28211.22  54.85%  32096.39  50.24%  8473.00  103.74% 
2007  19151.15  (32.12%)  20308.89  (36.73%)  4932.05  (41.79%) 
2008  14765.80  (22.90%)  30894.10  52.12%  9827.50  99.26% 
2009  13815.40  (6.43%)  28717.80  (7.04%)  17932.50  82.47% 
The Graphical Presentation is given below:
Illustration 12: Foreign Exchange Performance of CBL
Despite the political unrest and labor turmoil, export amount stood at Tk. 13815.40 million at the end of FY2009, registering a negative growth of 6.43% percent over that of FY2008.Import payments during FY2009 stood Tk. 28717.80 million registering a negative growth of 7.04% percent compared FY2008.
During the last two years, the bank signed money transfer agreement with overseas exchange companies. As a result, remittance flow has increased significantly. In the year 2009 total amount of the flow of remittance was Tk. 17932.50 million as against Tk. 9827.50 million in 2008 registering an increase of 82.47%.
Growth Analysis of City Bank’s Remittance:
Table 8: Remittance Inflow of CBL(Taka In Million)  
Year  2005  2006  2007  2008  2009 
Inflow  4158.70  8473.00  4932.05  9827.50  17932.50 
Growth Rate  –  103.74%  (41.79%)  99.26%  82.47% 
Illustration 13: Remittance Inflow of CBL
The bank has been continuing to extend special importance to foreign remittance from the very beginning of its establishment. With this view, we have started business in inward foreign remittance with overseas remittance exchange house companies by establishing Drawing Agreement. As a result remittance inflow of CBL rises to TK 4158.70 million from TK 17932.50 million in year 2005 to year 2009.
Forecasting Inflow of Remittance of CBL
Table 9: Remittance Inflow of CBL (Taka In Million)  
Year  2009  2010  2011  2012  2013 
Income  17932.50  26898.75  40348.125  60522.19  90783.28 
As for calculating remittance earning is not directly related with any micro economic variable and is dependent on macroeconomic conditions, that means if economical condition in host countries are favorable, than remittance inflow will be generated, and as for The Bank the income is generated from the commission earning so as quantity of remittance increases so do the income . But for simplicity and in need of forecasting, consider average growth 48.74% in remittance inflow. As a consequence in end of year 2013 CBL may achieve TK 90783.28 million remittance inflow.
The Graphical Presentation is given below:
Illustration 14: Forecasting inflow of remittance of CBL
Number of Drawing Agreement:
Table 10: Number of Drawing Agreements 
 
Year  2005  2006  2007  2008  2009  2010 
Drawing Agreement  5  7  9  14  21  24 
Number of Drawing agreement has a significant impact on remittance inflow thus in remittance income, because the more number of drawing agreement is signed between exchange house and the Banks the more the remittance inflow will be received. And this is evident form CBL’s income and number of Drawing agreement trend.
Country wise list of Exchange Houses having Drawing Agreement with CBL
Table 11: Country wise list of Exchange Houses
Country Name  No of Exchange Houses 
Bahrain  1 
Kuwait  3 
Oman  4 
Qatar  4 
U.A.E.  5 
U.K.  6 
U.S.A.  1 
CBL Contribution in Total Remittance:
The amount of remittances comes through CBL in terms of total remittance has also increased over the years. In 2005, CBL remittances as percent total remittance at 17.59% percent. In 2009,
CBL remittances as percent total remittance at 26.89% percent.
Table 12: CBL Contribution in Total Remittance
Year  CBL  BNG  percentage 
2005  4158.7  23646.97  17.58661 
2006  8473  32274.6  26.25284 
2007  4932.05  41298.5  11.94244 
2008  9827.5  54293.24  18.10078 
2009  17932.5  66674.87  26.89544 
The Graphical Presentation is given below:
Illustration 16: CBL Contribution in Total Remittance
Overcoming the Barriers:
Form the inception of The City Bank Limited; it is striving to increase the flow of remittance to keep the contribution in the country’s economy and to meet up their internal demand in foreign trade business. Despite of some limitation at present CBL has 97 branches all over the country covering a satisfactory area for creating a proper channel of remittance.
To overcome the barriers of smooth flow of remittance the following initiative will be taken
Increase number of drawing agreement.
Introducing electronic remittance cared system or RPC.
Digitalizing the fund transfer process.
Increasing the network coverage.
Drawing agreement with local NGOs.
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