Importance of Stock Market in Bangladesh
One of the most burning questions today is what the use of the capital market is and why the government should get involved to stabilize the market. Why should we care about the prospect of the market, if it does not contribute to our economy? Apparently, it seems that stock market does not keep any connection with the economy. But this market offers a great opportunity for the whole economy if we can grab it properly: Firstly, the companies can arrange their long term capital for business expansion from market with a minimum cost. The banks are suitable only for short term and mid term financing. Secondly, the companies listed in the stock market come under regulation of Securities and Exchange Commission, which ensures the corporate governance of the companies. The financial statement of listed companies is quite informative and valuable than unlisted companies. Thirdly, the most important factor is that stock market can attract investment. People reduce their consumption and invest here to earn better in future. Fourthly, stock market can finance huge fund for large projects easily. Finally, stock market is considered as the barometer of economy. An efficient stock market is the leading indicator of the economy.
How volatile Bangladesh’s Stock Market is?
“According to the famous Capital Asset Pricing Model, Market return, proxies by return from a broad-based market index should be related to the risk associated with macroeconomic health of the an economy as the later affects an individual firm’s cash flows and the systematic risk component. Therefore, the overall performance of Macroeconomic condition of a firm in terms of its contribution to the market portfolio return, in turn, can be evaluated based on some macro variables like GDP growth, inflation, etc. As far as a risk adverse investor is concerned, uncertainty is the most important factor in pricing any financial asset. According to most asset pricing theories, uncertainty or risk is determined by the covariance between asset return and the market portfolio. Although it has been recognized for quite some time that the uncertainty of speculative prices, as measured by the variances and covariance, is changing through time, it was not until recently that financial economists have started explicitly modeling time variation in second- or higher order moments. Sufficient evidences are still to come from emerging markets like the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) in Bangladesh. Their paper showed how predicted macroeconomic volatility is related to the predicted stock market volatility in Bangladesh. “Results showed that the relation between stock market and macroeconomic variables is not strong. It was also found that industrial production volatility Granger-causes stock market volatility and stock market volatility Granger-causes inflation uncertainty (volatility). However, in the absence sufficiently large number of investors and analysts in Bangladesh capital market, it might have reflected the investors’ reaction in reverse direction. The dearth of qualified analysts and institutional investors is a well-known fact in the emerging markets like the one in Bangladesh.”
Current situation of the investors
– Most of the investors invest in the market based on their surrounding’s information
– Most of them have hard that the market is quite profitable.
– Most of them have heard that earning profit is quite easy and academic knowledge is not that much necessary. All they need to do is to stay in the market for few days
– Most of the investors are highly risk averse or they take risk without knowing about the market situation correctly and accurately
– Information is manipulated frequently
– Market is above average volatile
– Young investors are increasing in number
– The craze of investing in the stock market is spreading all over the country
– Number of brokerage house has been increased so fast
– Process to be a part of the investment in the market is getting more and more hazardous and lengthy
Market Capitalization Ratio
Between FY 1995-96 and FY 2008-09, market capitalization stayed between 4 to 20 percent. In FY1995-96, the rate of market capitalization was 4.77 percent while in FY 2004-05, it reached at 5.72 percent. After this period, the rate of market capitalization increased at a smooth rate and in FY 2008-09; the market capitalization ratio reached at 16.29 percent. But after that year, market capitalization ratio doubled than that of the previous year and reached at 32.79 percent in FY2009-10 and finally in FY2010-11, the market capitalization rate became 29.55 percent.
GDP and market capitalization have not displayed any significant correlation (Figure 2). That is, the size of market capitalization has not shown any relationship with GDP. The percentage change in GDP at current price has a smooth shape while the percentage change in market capitalization has shown an erratic trend. In FY 1996-97, the percentage change of market capitalization was 33.26 whereas the percentage change of GDP at current price was 8.64 percent. Again in FY 2001-02, the percentage change of market capitalization was -9.82 percent whereas the percentages change of GDP at current price was 7.75 percent. And finally in FY 2010-11, the percentage change of market capitalization is 2.22 percent while the percentage change in GDP at current price is 13.42 percent.
Market Capitalization and Investment Ratio
From FY 1995-96 to FY 2006-07, the market capitalization and investment ratio has stayed between 10 to 35 percent. Following that fiscal year the scenario has been changed significantly and the ratio of market capitalization and investment has increased with a maximum growth, indicating the huge accumulated concentration in capital market than those of other forms of investment. In FY 1995-96 the market capitalization and investment ratio was 23.86 percent which increased with a growth rate of 1.12 percent in following year and reached 35 percent. In FY 2007-08, the market capitalization and investment ratio increased to 59.69 percent, 70.54 percent higher than previous fiscal year. This increasing rate has prevailed in FY 2009-10 and FY 2010-11 and the market capitalization and investment ratio were 134.29 and 119.46 percent respectively. These indicate that in these years the market capitalization exceeded the total investment of the economy.
Turnover equals the value of total shares traded divided by market capitalization. High turnover is often used as an indicator of high level of liquidity. Turnover also can be used as complements of total value traded ratio. While total value traded and GDP ratio capture trading compared with the size of the economy, turnover measures trading relative to the size of the stock market. Therefore a small, liquid market may have a high turnover ratio but with a small total value traded and GDP ratio.
In FY 1995-96, the turnover of DSE was Tk. 819.91 crore while in FY 1996-97, it reached at Tk. 6541.35 crore. ‘Fake’ demand mechanism during this period has led the general index price to move vertically and hence increased the liquidity of capital market. But the following year in FY 1997-98, the turn over reduced at a significant rate and a total of Tk. 5279.66 crore fell short from the previous fiscal year and the turn over became Tk. 1261.69 crore. In FY 2005-06, the turnover was Tk. 4599.36 crore. In FY 2009-10, the turnover again increased dramatically and reached at Tk. 256353.55 crore.
The extent of ups and downs in turnover of capital market mainly depends on economic environment and some others factors such as short term increase in profit in capital market than those of other economic activities. In calendar year 1996, the sudden increase in general index made the temptation to the people and it also has induced people to invest more in capital market. Therefore in FY 1996-97, the turnover increased by 697.81 percent than the previous fiscal year. But ‘game planner’ has achieved the goal and reduced the turnover by 80.71 percent than that of the previous fiscal year. The turnover increased dramatically from FY 2008-09 to FY 2009-10; in this period the turnover increased about 186.81 percent than that of previous fiscal year and became Tk. 256353.55 crore. The turnover as well as liquidity of capital market started to fall in FY 2010-11. The present economic adverse condition together with the contra dictionary monetary policy may cause a negative impact on turnover and liquidity of capital market may go down in near future.
CAPITAL MARKET SIZE
One of the important indicators of the capital market is the number of listed companies. The rationale of including this measure is that as the number of listed company increases, available securities and trading volume also increases. In basis of Bangladesh Economic Update, October 2011.
In FY 1990-91 the number of listed companies of DSE was 149 and finally in FY 2010-11, the listed companies of DSE stood at 268. The properties of the companies, the companies are divided into five groups; A, B, G, N and Z. The properties of these companies are shown in the table below.
The number of listed companies has grown from 149 to 268 with an average annual growth rate of 2.99 and a standard deviation of 43.39 from fiscal year 1990-91 to FY2010-11. In FY 1990-91 the number of listed companies of DSE was 149 while in FY 2001-02, the number of listed companies was increased to 248 and finally in FY 2010-11, the listed companies of DSE stood at 268.
The descriptive statistics of total listed companies in DSE shows that the minimum and maximum numbers of listed companies of DSE were 149 and 300 respectively with an average mean value of listed companies was 232 based on the last twenty two years information. The standard deviation of the number of listed companies was 43.39.
Growth of Listed Number of Companies
Over the time, the number of listed companies of DSE was following both positive and negative growth. In FY 1991-92, the numbers of listed companies increased by 2.68 percent while in FY 1994-95 the number of listed companies decreased by 4.47 percent. In FY 2009-10, the number of listed companies of DSE decreased from 300 to 273, about 9 percent less than that of the previous fiscal year. And finally in FY 2011-12, the number of listed companies declined to 268.
SECTOR WISE PERFORMANCE
In FY 2010-11, there was an upward trend in terms of sector wise performance; all sectors experienced an upward trend with a few exception. On the basis of market capitalization of ordinary shares of companies listed with DSE, total market capitalization of banking sector in FY 2010-11 was Tk. 68061.9 crore which was 5.67 percent higher than that of previous fiscal year. In this fiscal year total market capitalization of mutual fund was Tk. 3595.5 crore; 32 percent higher than that of previous fiscal year. In general the investment in mutual fund is normally assumed to safe investment due to volatility in capital market but the market capitalization of mutual fund was comparably lower than other sector. In FY 2010-11 the market capitalization of fuel and power sector was Tk. 28931.4 crore which was 4 percent lower than that of previous fiscal year on the other hand the market capitalization growth of insurance sector accumulated 32.28 percent in terms of previous fiscal year. But real sector components of economy such as jute industry although gained a positive market capitalization growth but the total market capitalization were lower and in last fiscal year it was only Tk. 79 crore. Telecommunication sector started it activities in capital market in FY 2009-10 with a total market capitalization of Tk. 31826.6 crore. But in the following fiscal year, the market capitalization of this sector dropped down about 30.46 percent and became Tk. 22131.4 crore.
In terms of sector wise composition of the financial sector including banks, investment and insurance continues to hold the majority share in total market capital capitalization. In FY 1995-96 the major contribution of market capitalization were engineering (22%), pharmaceuticals (13%), food and allied products (11%), banks (11%) and insurance (7%). In this period the major market contribution of market capitalization was mainly depended on those sectors which have direct influence on the real sector of the economy.
In FY 2001-02, the major sector wise contribution of market capitalization has significantly differed from the previous time trend. In this fiscal year the major market contribution in terms of market capitalization was banking sector. About 30 percent market capitalization has contributed by only single banking sector. All the other sectors like engineering, food and allied products, pharmaceuticals and fuel and power have less contribution in market capitalization. The sectors which can directly influence the real sector have contributed less than that of previous time and the growth of financial sector of market capitalization process has increased significantly.
The financial market contribution in capital market in terms of market capitalization has increased significantly in FY 2010-11. In this year the banks, insurance including mutual funds have jointly contributed 53 percent of market capitalization whereas pharmaceuticals and chemicals, textile industries, food and allied products and engineering have jointly contributed 21 percent of total market capitalization. The short term larger profit of financial sector has induced the investors to make a larger investment in financial sector than those of real sectors. Therefore in short run the profit has been maximized but in the long run it can make a disturbing effect on the economy which has already been observed through capital market downward trend and zero recovery in the capital market in this year.
CAPITAL MARKET CONDITION IN 1996
There was a huge surge in the stock market in 1996 evidenced by an enormous increase in the market capitalization. Total annual turnover and daily average turnover in DSE general index increased from 775.65 in January 1996 to 3064 in November, 1996. After an increase in the general index of DSE for a short period, the index started to fall down dramatically and in December 1996, the index fell down to 2300.15. The short time ‘game plan’ made the investors to invest more in the capital market but when this ‘game plan’ achieved its goal; the confidence of the investors was significantly damaged because of excessive speculations, allegedly aggravated by widespread irregular activities. This fall down of general index of DSE continued over the calendar year of 1997. In April 1997, the general index of DSE was 957.48 while in December 1997 it fell down to 756.78.
The percentage change in monthly closing index of DSE during capital market clash of 1996 shows that the price volatility of this market structure. The index took only three months to reach the Bangladesh Economic Update, October 2011. In July 2009 the general index of DSE was 2914.53 while in November 2010 it increased to 8602.44.peak and short run game plan indicated that a carted of investors probably was engaged in this game. The change of general index of DSE remained between 1 to 10 percent during January 1995 to June 1996 but in July 1996 the index increased by about 20.55 percent than previous month and in September 1996 and October 1996 the index increased by 38.8 and 76.67 percent respectively and then it started to fall down and in December 1996 and March 1997, the general index of DSE fell down to 24.95 and 32.24 percent respectively.
THE CAPITAL MARKET SCENARIO IN 2011
The trend of general index of DSE during July 2009 to August 2010 shows that the general index of DSE has increased smoothly. In July 2009 the general index of DSE was 2914.53 while in April 2010 it increased to 5654.88. During this time period, there was an increasing trend of general index. In August 2010 the general index of DSE stood at 6657.97 and finally in November 2010, it reached the peak and became 8602.44. After this general index has started to fall down and in February 2011 it reached to 5203.08.
The percentage change of general index of DSE in 2011 suggests a different situation than that of the capital market downturn in 1996 because the market volatility of DSE was created long before the nose dive of the capital market during 2011. In November 2009, the general index of DSE increased about 30.22 percent than the previous month. During the consecutive twelve months the general index has risen on an average of 1 to 12 percent per month. This steady growth of the capital market index made a greater confidence among general investors of capital market. There was no greater market price volatility of general index, as a result a continue trend of a greater profit induced general investors to reinvest their profits along with additional capital. The ‘long term game planners’ have again won the game by selling the shares they have collected resulting in increased supply of shares, forcing the general index to fall. In December 2010 the general index started to fall by 3.62 percent than previous month. In February 2011, it decreased about 30.5 percent and reached at 5203.08. This declining trend of general index of DSE was continued and finally in 15 November 2011 it dropped down to 4645.89 (lowest in last 22 months).
The percentage change of general index during the downward trend of capital market in 2011 suggests a crafted long term ‘game plan’. By creating a artificial demand and sustaining it for a long time they made a strong confidence in investors.