Probabilistic Design

Probabilistic Design is a simple approach uses a factor of safety – or design factor – which is in reality a factor of ignorance – to try and make an allowance based on experience for possible variations in materials, loading etc. This is not good enough for safety critical items where some better quantification of reliability is needed. The distributions of factors affecting the component stresses are also determined, loads, stress concentration. Once these two distributions have been obtained, the component reliability can be calculated.